The Weasel guide to Settlers of Catan, part two - The First Half
In which I describe the initial game of Settlers, set up and starting strategies.
In the last installment, I gave an overview of the various Settlers strategies around, and how to play them. This time, we’re going to look a bit harder at some of the tactics that you can use to make your opponents’ lives harder. Since there are quite a few tricks, I’ve broken it up into the first half of the game (this post) and the second half (the next one).
Initial Placement
Your initial placement in the game is very important. Get a good head start on the other players and you can streak into the lead, where only a concerted counterattack can hold you back, or even slow you down.
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
The critical issue for your initial placement is fairly obvious: How many cards do I get? While it is obvious, there are a few subtleties that you may not notice at first. Try and keep the following in mind:
Individual intersections
First and foremost you should try and maximise the average number of cards that you get from placing on an intersection. There are a couple of ways of doing this, but the chief one is to figure out the chance (out of 36 rolls) that you’ll get a card. Over thirty-six rolls, you should get that many cards. Intersections can vary from 3/36 (an 11 and 12 on a coastal hex) to 12/36 (a six, nine and ten or similar). The intersection totals are distributed roughly the same as a standard 3d6 roll, which means most intersections will be at about a score of 8 to 10.
Overall score
Also pay attention to the overall score, particularly when assessing other player’s positions. Sure, they may have a particularly good eight-five-three number, but if their other placement is shocking, they’re not going to do so well.
Well-roundedness
Fate is fickle, and often likes to play around with the dice. How many times have you gotten that eight grain hex, only to have six after six get rolled instead? To try and avoid this, get access to as many different numbers as possible while maintaining your overall score.
When is a good score not a good score?
This is a bit of a trick question, but try to avoid doing too well out of your initial placement compared to the other players. It’ll single you out as public enemy number one right from the get-go, and you’ll be stalled on the starting line. If your sensibilities rebel at the thought of picking an inferior placement, try and point out better spots to the people who come after you. Remember though, that you still want to come out ahead.
Geometry
Geometry refers here to your overall placement in relation to other settlements. By placing your settlements in certain ways, you hope to limit other people’s access to hexes and resources while keeping some for yourself.
Dense placement
is the optimal solution for packing settlements around a hex. Each settlement is two spaces from another, and there are three settlements around each hex. Generally you’ll use this around your own areas, to maximise the amount of useful land. Notice how you can fit three settlements on the one hex, and still have room for more around the edges.
Sparse placement
is the opposite of dense placement. Each settlement is placed three spaces from the next one, usually starting with two on either side of a valuable resource. The settlements are as far away from each other as they can get without allowing another player to place in between them. This is usually used in other people’s territory, to cut down the amount of available land, although it’s also used by dwarves to limit the expansion of more settlement oriented players. Notice that no settlements can be placed on the central hex in this image, and that there will be many more places where settlements cannot be placed in the hexes outside.
Coastal vs Inland
Coastal hexes are usually the better bet. You’re less likely to get shut in, and more likely to reach a port. Placing directly on the coast is generally a bad idea, unless it’s to annoy someone bt grabbing their port, or there are better numbers or resources on the coast. You get two hexes instead of three, and what’s worse, you might get shut in, since coastal hexes have fewer adjoining intersections than inland hexes. Note the image - red is going to have a hard time getting another settlement from the one displayed.
Other considerations
These are the non-numerical things that you should take into account when placing your initial settlements. They’ll often mean that you take a hit in raw scores, but the positional advantage that you gain may be worth it.
Shutting other players out
involves building around them completely, so that there is physically nowhere for them to build to. As a variation, you can simply build in their way, so that they’re forced to detour around you, spending an extra couple of roads to get where they need to. Players who build on the coast are particularly vulnerable to this trick, and players who are inland are also susceptible towards the middle of the game, when you can deny them a port that they need. See the coastal vs. inland section above for a picture of how this works.
Limiting another player’s expansion
in the early game is important, particularly if they have good clay and/or timber numbers. An early expansion can net them the lion’s share of the resources, which they can then capitalise on at leisure.
Spite!
Often you’ll be better off (and get more satisfaction) by placing on a hex that another player wants. If they have the only clay hex, for example, and you know that they’re going to need grain, obviously you want to place on as many grain numbers as possible, so that you have some leverage when it comes down to getting clay out of them. Often you may be better off denying another player some key resource that they need, than taking an average or below average spot. The same applies to getting in their way if you think they’re going for longest road, or building across their path to a port they might want.
Resource balancing
Don’t get stuck with nothing but sheep and grain. There’s often a lull in trading at the start of the game, so if you have to roll too many numbers for your first expansion you may end up being a turn or two behind the pack. Initially you’ll need two clay, two wood, a sheep and a grain, or two grain and three ore if you’re a dwarf.
Pile in on crowded hexes
If there are two people on a good hex, it can often be worthwhile joining in. It’s far less likely to get the robber put on it, and if it does there’ll be three people trying to get it off, not just one.
Don’t do what other players do
The converse also holds - if there are lots of people trying the same strategy, it often pays to try something else and grab a different part of the map for yourself. They’ll all be struggling with each other while you have plenty of room to expand.
Steer clear of some players
Not that I’d ever play like this, but some players hold grudges, and attack other players purely because they want to get even with some previous slight, or because that player happens to win more often than not. If one of the players is particularly unpopular, try to avoid placing your settlements next to theirs.
The early game
The early game is where it all happens. Empires are won or lost, roads built and settlements founded. It’s also where a lot of games are won or lost. You’ve already (hopefully) made some good choices in your starting positions - here are some tips to help you nail down your win so that other players can’t pry it up and run away with it.
Expand like a loon!
This is one of the critical aspects of settlers. You’ll need to expand dramatically in order to have a chance in the later game. Count your resources, preferably before you even start. To build your third settlement, you’ll typically want two bricks, two wood, a grain and a sheep. What are you missing? If you don’t secure those resources, by whatever means necessary, you’ll falter in the early game and never catch up.
Unless you’re extremely lucky, you’ll likely have at least one gap in the resources that you’ll need. Look around the board and figure out who’s going to have that resource. More importantly, figure out what they’re going to need. Chances are that it’ll be something that you have, or are likely to get. They’ll need to trade at some point, and when they do, you’ll be ready. If they don’t want to trade, you’ll know where to put the robber when you roll your next seven.
Don’t waste your cards
Since cards and resources are critical, it’s important that you don’t waste them, particularly if you only get a resource from a mediocre number. The two biggest areas of waste in the early game are from roads and development cards. It’s often better to sit with more than seven cards rather than possibly waste a road. The only exception is if you are short of timber and clay and fear someone stealing from you. Similarly, the only time that you should buy a card in the early game is if you have the robber on you and can’t get it off, or if you’re a dwarf and you have the cards to spare.
Malthus and exponential growth
Malthus was an economist who proposed in 1798 that populations could be modeled in terms of exponential growth, limited by certain factors in the environment, such as mortality rates and scarce food. The same theory can be applied to help you win at Settlers.
First of all, recognise that resources in Settlers are used to increase your production capacity, which means more resources, which means more production - exponential growth, in other words. The critical issue for each game is to identify those factors which are limiting you, and take steps to alleviate them.
- A lack of resources, if your numbers are too poor relative to the other players. This can be relieved by building more settlements, or converting your best settlements into cities.
- A lack of the right resources, if you have plenty of sheep or grain, but no clay. This can be helped by trading with other players, building out to a port, buying development cards or building new settlements out to resources that you don’t have.
- A lack of space to expand, if someone has built up right next to you. There are only a few ways to counteract this: either try and impose more limitations on your rival, or try and break out before they encircle you.
- A lack of pieces, ie. you can’t build more than 15 roads, 5 settlements or four cities.
Note that while you can remove limits from yourself, you can also impose limits upon the other players, by hitting them with the robber and shutting down their good numbers, blocking off their roads or limiting their access to stone later in the game. This is almost always a bad idea unless one player is so far ahead that they are the only threat, and the only way for any of the other players to win is to make a concerted effort to drag them back. To gain the same benefit from removing one of your limits, you need to impose a similar limit on the three other players.
Brick and grain are good
Brick is useful for building roads and settlements, two of the most critical elements in a player’s expansion. It only occurs in three hexes, so it’s often scarce.
Grain is useful for building settlements and cities and for buying development cards. It occurs on four hexes, so it’s often not as scarce as clay.
Timber is less good
Everywhere that timber is used, clay is used too - but timber has four hexes to clay’s three. So clay will almost always be the limiting factor when it comes to building roads and settlements. There is usually a glut of timber, particularly when clay is scarce. But hey, it’s still better than sheep…
Early game hexes are better
The hexes that you secure in the early game are far more valuable than those secured in the middle and end games, so make sure you expand early. There are three key reasons to bear in mind:
- Decreasing numbers. As the game goes on, more and more of the good hexes will get taken, leaving the crappy ones for the dwarves. If you get a hex in the end game, chances are it’s a 2 hex bordered by desert.
- More time. If you build a settlement straightaway, you’ll get more resources out of it compared to one that you build ten turns later.
- Exponential growth. All those extra resources that you’re getting are going into building more settlements. The faster you can build that first settlement, the further ahead you’ll be in another ten turn’s time.
Summary
If you haven’t figured it out by now - grow like your hair’s on fire! You’re competing with the other players in the game, remember? The better your starting position, and the more stuff you can get, the faster you’ll grow, the better the hexes you’ll get, and the more you’ll pull ahead. Cram as many of your resources as you can into developing more resources, and you might just win through.
